A Framework of Disaster

It occurs to me, while thinking about survival and disaster prep, that we need a framework to work with within and organize our thoughts around.  There are three axis that encompass all disasters: duration, area of effect and intensity.  When possible disasters are viewed as they relate to these three metrics, it becomes possible to determine which disasters and what type of disruptions we can and should prepare for.  Not all disasters are equally likely, nor do they cause the same amount of disruption.  Through the use of this framework, it is possible to identify which disasters are likely enough and disruptive enough to make it worth preparing for.

Duration

Disasters, and their resulting disruptions, can last anywhere from a few minutes through weeks, months or even be indefinite.  The shorter a disaster, the less amount of preparation is required.  For example, if the power goes out for a few hours, it might be inconvenient, but for most people it wouldn’t lead to a survival situation.  However, if the same thing happens for a few days, especially in cold climates where people need electricity to run their heaters, a simple power outage could easily turn into a survival situation.

The shorter the disruption, the more common they are.  Disasters like Hurricane Katrina, the Seattle WTO Riots, or the Northridge Earthquake are very rare events, but they cause disruption for days and weeks, even years for some people.  Somewhere in between these extremes there are likely enough disasters where it would be helpful to be prepared for.

Area of Effect

On the second axis there is a similar situation.  There are very localized disruptions that are quite common, while other disasters that have a much larger area of effect are quite a bit more rare.

The more localized a disruption, the smaller the impact on our daily lives.  If there is a street closure for a block, it’s easy to route around it.  However, when the I-5/SR-14 interchange collapsed in the Northridge Earthquake or when the Bay Bridge collapsed in the Loma Prieta earthquake, those disruptions where much harder to route around.

Just as with the shorter disruptions, the localized ones don’t need much preparation and the disruptions that affect many are fairly rare.  Again, it is between these two extremes where we have events that are likely enough to affect us, and where preparation would be helpful, that it makes sense to spend the time, effort and money to prepare.

Intensity

On the final axis, intensity, again we find a similar pattern.  Take a political protest for example, it can range anywhere from a peaceful gathering that might block a street for a couple hours, all the way up to a multi-day riot where people are clashing with police and burning down buildings.  Clearly, the more intense situation is the riot, but it’s also much more rare.  And intensity isn’t necessarily tied to a longer duration.  A slow speed car accident wouldn’t be intense but it would be over quickly.  A high speed car crash would be just as quick, but also a lot more intense.

Just as with the other two axis, the level of disruption needs to be weighted against the likelihood of occurrence.  The most intense disasters are also the most rare.  It’s not that likely that any individual will be caught in the middle of a riot, or an 8.0 earthquake, or a hurricane’s storm surge.  But when these things do happen, they can be ruinous to the individual.

Putting it all together

When these axis are combined, we are left with a band of disruptive and common enough events that are worth preparing for.  While an event like the one described in Cormac McCarthy’s The Road is possible, an even that destroys modern society as we know it, one that would be in the far upper-right corner of the graph to the right, is highly unlikely.

You’ll notice two things in the graph above: first, it only shows two of the three axis; second, there are no units on either axis.  This graph is intended to give you a visual idea of what this article is talking about.  Unfortunately, I don’t have the skill or ability to make a 3D graph, but this one should suffice for giving you the idea.  As for the lack of units, judging those risks and the associated cost-benefit analysis of preparation is one each person needs to make for themselves.  The risk, needs and costs of preparation will be different for each person.  However, communities often times face similar threats, and it is possible for a community to come together collectively to address these threats and reduce the cost of preparation.  The goal here would be to build a resilient community.

It is with this framework that each of us can start addressing reasonable threats and building the most effective plans possible to address them.